Keys to Xavier and Cincinnati Making the Sweet Sixteen

       The Xavier Musketeers and Cincinnati Bearcats are both in the NCAA Tournament for the second straight season and have the chance to both make it to the Sweet Sixteen for first season since 2001. Xavier takes on the 15 seed Lehigh and Cincinnati plays the 3 seed Florida State, both of which are winnable games for the Cincinnati teams. Here are my keys to the games for Xavier and Cincinnati to advance to the next round:

 

Bracketology: Xavier Musketeers

Conference: A-10 (3rd)
Record: 17-9 (8-4)
RPI: 52
Strength of Schedule: 52
Quality Wins:

• @ #19 Vanderbilt 82-70
• vs Purdue 66-63

Bad Losses:

• vs. Oral Roberts 64-42
• vs. Long Beach State 68-58
• @ Hawaii 84-82

       At their peak, the Xavier Musketeers were #7 in the nation, riding an 8-0 start and senior point guard Tu Holloway was on pace to be a potential All-American. However, all of that changed after Xavier's 76-53 victory over the Cincinnati Bearcats in the annual Crosstown Shootout. While a lot of credit goes to Holloway for their hot start, he is part of the blame for their sudden downfall. Both teams were at fault for the brawl that occurred with less than ten seconds remaining in the game, but Tu Holloway rekindled the enmity between the two teams when he started jawing at UC players when Xavier had clearly secured the win. Punches were thrown, suspensions were given, and in the immediate aftermath, the Musketeers' legs were taken out from under them. It was apparent that XU would lose to Oral Roberts, when Holloway, Mark Lyons, and Dez Wells were serving their suspensions. The trio of guards average nearly fourty-five points per game combined and it was unlikely that Xavier's young bench players would be able to step up enough to win the game that early in the season. Luckily for the Muskies, the NCAA Tournament Committee will most likely take the suspensions into consideration when examining some of Xavier's losses early in the season. Xavier went on to lose three straight after falling to Long Beach State and Hawaii. However, once again, suspensions played a role in the losses. Lyons did not play against Long Beach State and Wells was absent for both matchups. With a full roster, Xavier would not have lost those games and would be sitting at 20-6 with only a few weeks remaining until March Madness. Even after all of their players returned from suspension, Xavier showed signs of deeper issues. Maybe it was the media's criticism of the responses Xavier players gave in the post-game press conference. Maybe the team's morale was crushed after dropping three straight in a regular season in which they could have realistically survived the entire season with only three losses. No one can point to one specific reason why the Musketeers were in a funk, but they have not been able to turn the corner. The loss to Gonzaga by seven points was respectable. Ideally, Xavier would have won that game at home, but Gonzaga was a ranked opponent who brought its A-game into the Cintas Center. The two conference losses XU would like to have back are the ones to La Salle and Dayton. Both opponents are middle-of-the-pack A-10 teams and would be bottom feeders in better conferences. When schedules are released each year and teams analyze their matchups, these two games are ones that are "gimmes," or winnable games that you can't let slip out of your grasp. No matter who wins the A-10 tournament, Temple and St. Louis are both likely going to the tournament. They are the two teams standing in Xavier's way of first place in the Atlantic 10 Conference and prove to be tough competition for Xavier on a yearly basis. The loss to Memphis was another missed opportunity but not a make-or-break game for Xavier's tournament chances. Memphis was a highly ranked team earlier in the season and boost Xavier's strength of schedule.

Courtesy of http://www.pickinsplinters.com/2011/11/29/holloway-posts-24-as-no-1111-xavier-defeats-no-1920-vanderbilt-82-70-in-overtime/

       The key for Xavier to solidify itself as a tournament worthy team is to win out in the rest of the regular season. Two of the remaining games are against bad opponents in Charlotte and Richmond. Along with the matchup against Massachusetts, these games are opportunities to boost Xavier's confidence and record. The biggest game left on the Musketeers' schedule is against SLU, who is in second place in the A-10 by half a game. XU can get a payback victory over the Billikens and even make their way into one of the top two positions in the conference. If Xavier were to enter the A-10 Tournament on a five games win streak, the Muskies would hopefully be able to ride that momentum to an A-10 Championship and a NCAA Tournament berth as a result.

Courtesy of http://northwesternwins.wordpress.com/tag/xavier-musketeers/

The Verdict:
       I think it is safe to say that winning the A-10 Tournament is the only way for Xavier to guarantee that it will be heading to the Big Dance in March. Other than their first eight games of the season, Xavier has not proven to be an excellent or consistent team. The Musketeers have a few nice wins, but their bad losses greatly outweigh any bright spots of this season. Four of their nine losses were by seven points or less, but Xavier cannot consistently come away with the W when it matters the most. Also, Xavier struggles greatly outside of Cincinnati. The Musketeers are 4-5 on the road and tournament-qualifying teams are able to win on the road. Xavier is on the outside looking in. It's a shame to see a team with such potential and promise let its season go down the drain.

• Best Case Scenario-Xavier wins its final four games of the regular season and wins the A-10 Tournament. The Musketeers would likely be between a ten and a twelve seed in the NCAA Tournament. Depending on which team they were to draw, they could upset a 5, 6, or 7 seed. Even if they do make the tournament, they will have an early exit. When at their best, XU's guards can play with any backcourt in the country, but the Muskies lack depth down low.
• Worst Case Scenario-Xavier struggles in the rest of the remaining conference games. The Musketeers go on to lose to La Salle, Dayton, Temple, or St. Louis, all teams that have given Xavier trouble this season and in recent memory.

       The Xavier Musketeers could have been as high as a two or three seed if the Crosstown Shootout incident had been avoided or if they were able to rebound in better fashion. However, they may have played their way out of an at-large bid. Joe Lunardi, ESPN's bracketology expert, has recently added Xavier as an eleven seed from the first team out for this year's NCAA Tournament. Tu Holloway and Kenny Frease must rally the troops in their final games of their college careers and prove that Xavier can win enough games in a row to guarantee a tournament bid. I hope XU proves me wrong, but I do not see Xavier making the tournament and they will have to settle for a top seed in the N.I.T. The Musketeers will get the great seed they have had their eyes set on since getting eliminated last season by Marquette, but it will be in the wrong tournament.

Xavier May Benefit from Suspensions

            The Xavier Musketeers were essentially without an offense this afternoon when they lost 64-42 against the Oral Roberts Golden Eagles. Starters Tu Holloway, Mark Lyons, and Dez Wells are serving suspensions from their roles in a brawl against the Cincinnati Bearcats two weeks ago. Holloway and Lyons are averaging nearly eighteen points apiece and Wells is scoring almost ten per game. The Muskies had to rely on players who don't often play in the spotlight, such as Andre Walker, Travis Taylor, Brad Redford, and Dee Davis. Taylor and Davis led the team in scoring with 11 and 10, respectively. While no team wants to get destroyed on their home court like Xavier did today, every player, with the exception of Kenny Frease got more minutes than they usually do. Tu Holloway will return next game against Long Beach State and will guide the Musketeers offense and make sure his teammates are involved. Lyons and Wells will serve three more games of suspension before they return. In these few games, Xavier's bench will get more experience than they would normally so that when they are put in the game in important situations later in the season, they will become bigger contributors. Also, Xavier's rank will slip slightly but not greatly. Everyone knows that Xavier is a completely different team without its trio of star players. Take any team in the country, suspend the best three players, and you have a competely different team. Xavier will remain in the top 15 in the country and will be a better team when all of its players return from suspension.

#8 Xavier Dominates Cincinnati During the Game; Cincinnati Wins the Brawl

            Commonly known as the "Crosstown Shootout" in Cincinnati, the annual matchup between the Xavier Musketeers and Cincinnati Bearcats is one of the most anticipated games for both teams because of their huge rivalry. The game was of even more importance because Xavier came into the game as the eighth ranked team in the nation and the Bearcats had nothing to lose. Cincinnati had been ranked earlier in the season before losing to Presbyterian and Marshall. Tu Holloway and the rest of the Musketeers were motivated to have a big win against UC after the comments that Cincinnati guard Sean Kilpatrick made earlier in the week. On a radio interview, Kilpatrick, a largely unknown sophomore guard, said that All-American Tu Holloway wouldn't start at UC because of the talent that the Bearcats have on their roster. He went on to say that he is better than Holloway, despite averaging three fewer points per game, four fewer assists, and two fewer assists, on a worse team I might add. Xavier was at a huge advantage by playing at their home court, the Cintas Center, and having the support of its rowdy student section.
            For the majority of the first half, the game was back and forth, and it seemed to be a toss-up on who would win. With four minutes left in the first half, the score was 25-23 in favor of Xavier. However, poor shooting by the Bearcats and an air-tight Musketeers defense allowed Xavier to close the half on a 9-2 run that put them ahead 34-25 at halftime. Now, a nine point deficit at halftime is nothing in college basketball. At that point, Cincinnati was still in the game; however, that changed quickly. Xavier came out strong in the second half, with their guard trio of Tu Holloway, Mark Lyons, and Dez Wells carrying the way with a combined 27 second half points.
            In the closing seconds of the game, University of Cincinnati guard Dion Dixon air-balled a three point attempt and Tu Holloway and Cincinnati guard Ge'Lawn Guyn exchanged some heated words. Dez Wells ran over in support of Holloway and shoved Guyn to the ground. Unfortunately, the altercation took place right in front of the UC bench and both benches cleared onto the court. Yancy Gates then threw the basketball and Holloway as players started getting into each other's faces. The referees tried to break up the players but there was only so much that a few men can stop much bigger players from fighting. Bearcat center Yancy Gates slugged Xavier center Kenny Frease in the face, leaving Frease to crawl away from the brawl. Ge'Lawn Guyn then tried to attack Xavier guard Brad Redford, but both players were restrained by their coaches.  Gates threw another punch at a Xavier player Landen Amos, while Mark Lyons and Dez Wells were going after a Bearcat player in the corner of the court. Frease walked away from the end of the skirmish with a bruised eye and blood running down his face.

Courtesy of http://search.espn.go.com/uc-xavier-fight/

            Since the Crosstown Shootout turned out to be a 23-point blowout, the main story of the game is the fight. So what are the immediate consequences of the brawl? The NCAA will have to review the film upwards of fifty times to fully understand what happened. There were too many bodies involved and fists flying to comprehend the full picture. It will be very likely that a few players threw punches but there was never a clear camera angle, so they will escape the week without punishment. However, it is guaranteed that players from both teams will be suspended, with the possibility of even harsher punishment from the NCAA or the teams themselves. University of Cincinnati coach Mick Cronin issued strong words in the post-game news conference, claiming that he was going to evaluate the brawl with the school president and decide if players deserve to remain on the team. I assume he is speaking specifically about Yancy Gates, but any of his players could get booted. Yancy Gates may find himself kicked off of the University of Cincinnati basketball team or minimally a ten game suspension. Ge'Lawn Guyn will be out for probably five games. Tu Holloway may get one game for provoking the entire incident, while Mark Lyons and Dez Wells will most likely get a suspension in the neighborhood of three games. And these were just the players that were clearly involved in the altercation. A few other players will probably be punished by the NCAA as well.

Courtesy of http://search.espn.go.com/uc-xavier-fight/

            While the suspensions will seriously impact both teams since key players were involved, it is more important for Xavier to stay away from suspensions longer than two games. Xavier's next game is Sunday, December 18th against Oral Roberts, so the league will have lots of time to make decisions without feeling rushed. They have three non-conference games before starting A-10 play, the last of which being against #22 Gonzaga. At #8 in the nation, with the potential for an even better rank of anyone in front of them loses, it is crucial that they start conference play undefeated and beat a ranked, non-conference opponent in Gonzaga. As we saw today in the Ohio State vs. Kansas game, the loss of one important player can have a huge impact on the result of the game. While Jared Sullinger wasn't suspended, but rather out with back spasms, Ohio State was a completely different team and loss to Kansas by eleven. Holloway, Lyons, and Wells have been carrying Xavier so far this season and losing any combination of those guards against a quality opponent will not bode well for Xavier's record or ranking.

Courtesy of http://www.greenwichtime.com/sports/article/Cincinnati-loses-to-No-8-Xavier-76-53-after-brawl-2394576.php

            It is sad that such a historic, fierce rivalry had to come to blows and it is a disgrace to both schools. Cincinnati's basketball team will likely fall back into having the reputation of being a team full of thugs, which they earned during the Bob Huggins era. I can't imagine what the game would be like if these two teams were to meet in the tournament this season, and next year's Crosstown Shootout will be very tense in the wake of today's brawl.

Xavier Cruises For Its Second Win

         

Courtesy of  http://hawkcentral.com/2010/11/18/gatens-back-for-tough-xavier-matchup/

             I know it's very early in the season, with most teams having played only two games, but I predict Xavier will go on an Elite Eight run in the NCAA tournament. Sure, it's only November and we're four months away from March Madness, but Xavier's guard play is good enough to match up with any backcourt in the country. Tonight, the fourteenth ranked team in the nation beat IPFW by a score of 86-63 at home. The Musketeers' guards alone scored a combined 62 points. They are led by senior Tu Holloway and junior Mark Lyons, who led all scorers, outside of Mastadons guard Frank Gaines. I was encouraged to see Holloway bounce back well from his one-game suspension from playing in two summer leagues, when the rules state that a player is only allowed to compete in one. True freshman Dezmine Wells has stood out in Xavier's first two games to be a third scoring option, who can play as a guard or forward. The key to XU's blowout win was their phenomenal shooting. The Musketeers made over 56% of their shots and impressively shot above fifty percent from behind the arc. The biggest question in their lineup is the strength and depth of their big men. Kenny Frease, listed at 7'0", is a big body in the middle and will need to both stay out of foul trouble as well as be able to body up against skilled centers and forwards. The true test will come in the Crosstown Shootout against the University of Cincinnati on December 10th, when Frease will be matched-up against Yancy Gates.

             Xavier will head into a tough stretch of games against a lot of bulldogs, literally. In the next month, they face Georgia, Gonzaga, and Butler, as well as games against the ranked opponents of Vanderbilt and Cincinnati. Luckily, their schedule evens out with a pretty easy schedule in the second half of the year when they play most of their conference games, with a game against current #10 Memphis in the middle of the Musketeers' A-10 schedule. The next ten games will be a gauge to see if Xavier is worthy of their #14 rank, and if they can survive with only one loss, they could even find themselves somewhere around #10. Assuming their starting lineup remains healthy, I think Xavier can go undefeated in the A-10 and Tu Holloway has All-American potential.