Keys to Xavier and Cincinnati Making the Sweet Sixteen

       The Xavier Musketeers and Cincinnati Bearcats are both in the NCAA Tournament for the second straight season and have the chance to both make it to the Sweet Sixteen for first season since 2001. Xavier takes on the 15 seed Lehigh and Cincinnati plays the 3 seed Florida State, both of which are winnable games for the Cincinnati teams. Here are my keys to the games for Xavier and Cincinnati to advance to the next round:

 

Royce White: The Definition of Versatility

       Iowa State is not known for its basketball program. The 2011-2012 season marked the fourteenth time that the Cyclones were selected for the NCAA Tournament. Iowa State made the Final Four once in 1944 but their most famous appearance in the tourney was when they were upset by 15 seeded Hampton, only the fourth time such an upset had occurred.

       After the Cyclones’ 23-11 season and fourth place finish in the Big 12, behind three top 10 teams in Missouri, Kansas, and Baylor, the selection committee chose Iowa State as the 8 seed in the South region. Much of their success can be credited to redshirt sophomore Royce White. The 6’8″, 270 lb. power forward spent the first eighteen years of his life in Minnesota, first as a two-time state champion in high school and then he committed to the University of Minnesota to play for Tubby Smith. After multiple run-ins with the law in his freshman year as a Golden Gopher, including charges for theft, disorderly conduct, and trespassing, White transferred to Iowa State. John Calipari had contacted the talented forward to play for Kentucky but he decided on Iowa State instead. Since his transfer was before the end of his freshman year, Royce White could not play for a scholarship in the following season and was forced to redshirt in the 2010-2011 season.

Courtesy of http://ksrcollege.com/

       In his first full season of playing college basketball, White hit the ground running and quickly became the Cyclones’ go-to player. In the opening game of the year, Royce White scored 25 points and pulled in 11 rebounds as Iowa State defeated Lehigh 86-77. The Minnesota-native recorded a double-double in the next game with 21 and 14 as he was began a season-long routine of putting up big numbers on a nightly basis. Iowa State reached the national spotlight when the Cyclones defeated #5 Kansas, giving the Jayhawks their first conference loss of the season. White and Iowa State tallied their second victory over a top 25 team in their last regular season game of the season against #10 Baylor. Despite heading into the Big 12 tournament on a high note, Iowa State lost to Texas in its opening game.

       Iowa State was matched up against the Connecticut Huskies in the Round of 64 of the NCAA Tournament and defeated the reigning national champions 77-64 after a hot-shooting performance. The Cyclones were 6-16 from behind the three-point line and were nearly perfect from the charity stripe, missing only one of their twenty free throw attempts. White played very well against Jim Calhoun’s squad, scoring fifteen points, securing fourteen rebounds, and racking up two assists.
As the Iowa State Cyclones advanced to the Round of 32, the media took a closer look at the Big 12 team and found that it was the Minnesota transfer, who was named to the All-Big 12 First Team and Big 12 Rookie of the Year that was making the Cyclones go. Royce White boasts himself on being the only player in the country who leads his team in every major statistical category. Despite playing power forward, a position which is traditionally known for scoring points in the paint and grabbing rebounds, White shines in every aspect of his game. Royce White has the ability to put up 25 points every game but focuses on the team’s success over his personal glory. He averaged 13.1 points, 9.2 rebounds, 5.1 assists, 1.2 steals, and 0.94 blocks per game in the 2011-2012 season.

       White faced a difficult test Saturday night when he was matched up against the front-runner for Player of the Year Anthony Davis of Kentucky. Even though Iowa State was defeated 87-71, White was one of the few bright spots for the Cyclones, finishing with 23 points, 9 rebounds, and 4 assists. For the Cyclones’ opening possessions, it was Royce White who took the ball down the court and played point guard. Although, for most of the game, White was playing well in the paint, getting open for easy baskets and scoring crucial points whenever Kentucky started to pull away. His best play of the game was when he stripped Davis on defense and went coast to coast for the dunk. Despite his large stature, Royce White has exceptional ball control and court vision.

Courtesy of http://www.mysanantonio.com/slideshows/sports/slideshow/Texas-vs-Iowa-State-36531.php

        If White declares for the NBA draft, he will likely be a first round draft pick. Although, if he stays for his remaining two years of eligibility, Iowa State could be a very formidable team. They are only graduating two seniors, Chris Allen and Scott Christopherson. The guard duo combine for twenty-four points per game and will surely be missed, but with many young players with post-season experience, Iowa State can rebuild to challenge the powerhouses of the Big 12.

The Year of the Upset

       At the start of the NCAA Tournament Thursday afternoon, it seemed that there would be very few upsets. The first nine games went the way of “chalk,” meaning that the lower, favorited seed won. March became a little madder when VCU followed up its Final Four appearance in 2011 by upsetting the #5 seed Wichita State by three points. In the final matchup of the opening day of the tourney, Colorado set the tone for Friday’s games by shocking the UNLV Running Rebels, #6 seed and #25 overall in the AP poll. As a whole, the number of upsets was surprisingly small. On average, there are eight upsets in the round of 64 based on the seed, putting this year’s tournament to fill only half of the “quota.”

Courtesy of http://www.silive.com/sports/index.ssf/2012/03/a_pair_of_no_2s_out_of_ncaa_to.html

     After all the games are finished for the second round, there were eight upsets on Friday, including two #15 seeds beating #2 seeds. North Carolina State, who finished 22-12 and fifth place in the ACC, trumped #6 San Diego State 79-65. The game was close at halftime, with the Wolfpack leading by four points, but NC State took over in the second half, led by Richard Howell’s twenty-two points.
Entering the 2012 edition of the NCAA Tournament, #15 seeds were 4-104 all-time against #2 seeds. That’s an average of one every 27 years. In historic fashion, two #2 seeds fell on Friday to their higher-ranked opponents. The Missouri Tigers were a trendy favorite to represent the West region in the Final Four. Mizzou was 30-4 in the regular season and won the Big 12 Tournament by defeating Baylor handily in the championship game. Three of their four losses were to ranked opponents and tournament teams, proving to be a tough out all season. In its first NCAA Tournament appearance, the Norfolk State Spartans shocked the basketball world by upsetting Mizzou 86-84 thanks to a great shooting performance. Three Spartans had at least twenty points and the team shot 54% from the floor. Missouri fought back at the end of the game and had a three-point attempt at the buzzer but it clanked off the rim and Norfolk State completed to unexpected upset. What made the night even more unpredictable was when Lehigh came back from being down by two at halftime to stun Coach K and the Duke Blue Devils. Led by junior guard C.J. McCollum, who scored thirty points, grabbed six rebounds, and had six assists, the Mountain Hawks go on to play Xavier.

Courtesy of http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/tag/_/name/2012-columbus-region

     While a #9 seed beating a #8 is not usually considered an upset, Saint Louis beat Memphis behind Kwamain Mitchell’s 22 points. Robbie Hummell and the Purdue Boilermakers narrowly beat St. Mary’s 72-69. Two years ago, the Ohio Bobcats as a #14 seed stunned the Georgetown Hoyas in the first round. Some of those same players are on the current squad that upset #4 Michigan 65-60. In the final games of the night, South Florida handed Temple a fourteen-point loss to be the second twelve seed this year to upset a five seed. Lastly, Xavier rallied to overcome a ten point deficit to beat Notre Dame after a bad lane violation call nullified a Fighting Irish one-and-one.

Courtesy of http://msn.foxsports.com/collegebasketball/story/Xavier-Musketeers-beat-Vanderbilt-Commodores-in-overtime-112811

       At this rate, this will be the craziest March Madness in the history of the tournament. Almost every game is down to the wire and anyone can beat anyone else. While Kentucky is playing at a higher level than every other team in the field, it is a toss-up for the matchups in the round of 32. If you ignore that seeds of the teams and compare them without a bias, there is very little separating the teams who remain in the tournament.

       Out of the remaining teams who upset a lower-ranked seed, I predict Xavier, VCU, and South Florida to advance to the Sweet Sixteen. Out of the 32 teams left in the field, Xavier, South Florida, and Murray State have the best chances to make it to the Elite Eight. Although, no matter who wins, I think everyone can agree that this has been the greatest opening weekend of the tournament we have ever seen and it can only get better from here.

How Will Fab Melo's Ineligibility Affect Syracuse?

       It has been a season full of drama and scandal for the Syracuse Orange basketball team, from the child molestation accusations against assistant coach Bernie Fine to center Fab Melo’s three-game suspension for due to academic issues to making a run at an undefeated season. All things considered, it should have come as no surprise that the Orange made headlines during March Madness. Most fans would expect the national spotlight to be on ‘Cuse for making it to the Final Four or for some other basketball achievement in the tournament. Instead, on Tuesday, March 13th, two days before the start of the round of 64, the story broke that the number two overall seed would once again be without Fab Melo. However, this time around, the seven-footer would not be returning to the court anytime soon. Once again, due to his academic standing, Syracuse University ruled Melo ineligible for the NCAA Tournament.

Courtesy of http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/tournament/2012/story/_/id/7681715/2012-ncaa-tournament-syracuse-orange-announce-fab-melo-ineligible-tourney

       With a legitimate shot at making a National Championship run, the indefinite suspension was a major blow to Syracuse. The team made a statement the following day stating that their starting center did not let them down, but the Orange were only a two blown calls away from potentially being the first #1 seed to lose to a #16 seed in the first round in the history of the 64/68-team tournament. Facing UNC-Asheville on Thursday, the Orange found themselves down by five in the second half to the lower-seeded Bulldogs. Don’t tell me that his teammates and the Syracuse wouldn’t have been holding him partly responsible for that loss had the final few minutes turned out differently.
       While Syracuse is very well-balanced on offense (seven players average between six and fourteen points per game), loaded with future NBA draft picks, and plays a stifling 2-3 defense, their opening game exposed a new team that could easily be on a plane home within the next week. Historically, 1 vs. 16 matchups tend to be blowouts by 20+ points. There are a few exceptions every few years where a 16 seed plays forty minutes of quality basketball and loses by a small margin, but typically these are the most lopsided games in the tournament. In a game that was supposed to be a cake walk, Syracuse suffered greatly from the abscense of its big man in the middle. UNC-Asheville’s forwards scored forty of the team’s sixty-five points and the Bulldogs were equally as successful on the boards by being only two rebounds shy of matching the Orange’s thirty-three rebounds. Syracuse is still a good team without Melo, but they lose the “intimidation” factor. Standing at 7’0″ and weighing 255 lbs., Fab Melo is monstrous and has a size advantage over almost every player that he is matched up against. The center averages eight points per game, but scoring isn’t necessarily his forté. He grabs an average of six rebounds per game to go along with three blocked shots each outing. While “shots altered” is not a statistical category for college basketball, if it was a recorded statistic, Melo would be somewhere at the top of the list. Even if he does not get the block or grab the rebound, each possession, opposing teams try to find ways to limit Melo because of his domination of the paint.
       If Syracuse is going to make it out of the East region, it will need every player who gets significant minutes to step up his game to make up for Fab Melo being sidelined. With him, ‘Cuse was likely a shoe-in for the Elite Eight and even a candidate for National Champion, but without their big man, the Orange are much more vulnerable. The East is filled with forwards and centers who can take advantage of Syracuse without Melo. Jared Berggren of Wisconsin is 6’10″ 235 lbs. (10 ppg, 5 rpg), Festus Ezeli of Vanderbilt is 6’11″ 255 lbs. (10 ppg, 6 rpg), Xavier Gibson of Florida State is 6’11″ 248 lbs. (7 ppg, 4 rpg), Yancy Gates of Cincinnati is 6’9″ 260 lbs. (12 ppg, 9 rpg), and Jared Sullinger of Ohio State is 6’9″ 265 lbs. (17 ppg, 9 rpg). These are a lot of numbers and may not tell us much about the matchups, but the point is that every team Syracuse could potentially face after the Sweet Sixteen has an extremely talented four or five man.
       Syracuse’s tournament hopes are by no means squashed because Fab Melo is ineligible but they are severely limited. The Orange have enough talent on their roster between Kris Joseph, Dion Waiters, C.J. Fair, Brandon Triche, Scoop Jardine, Rakeem Christmas, and James Southerland to beat Kansas State in the round of 32 but they are in danger of getting bounced by Wisconsin or Vandy in the Sweet Sixteen. If the Orange have enough luck to squeak by to the Elite Eight, I think Syracuse comes up short of the
       It’s a shame to see a team with potential to win the tournament lose one of its key players but they are called “student-athletes” for a reason. No work, no play, and Fab Melo hurt his team greatly by failing to meet the academic standards required to be a college athlete.

March Madness 2012

       Which month would you give up to have more March? While Buffalo Wild Wings jokingly uses this phrase in their recent advertising campaign for March Madness, in all seriousness, I would willingly give up a few days of each month to be able to have more of the NCAA Tournament.

        After coming home last night from practice and looking at the bracket, I could not have been more pleased with the result. When the biggest complaint about a team being left out is Drexel, a team in the Colonial Athletic Association who did win nineteen of its final twenty games but did not have a single quality win out of conference, the committee did an excellent job. I was very excited about how well the local teams fared as Xavier’s run in the A-10 Tournament earned the team a 10 seed and Cincinnati claimed a six spot after giving #2 Syracuse only its second loss of the season. Here are my initial reactions from Selection Sunday:

 Is Kentucky’s Road to the Final Four Too Tough?

One of the biggest complaints I have heard in the past day is that Kentucky has a more difficult than usual for the number one overall seed. The Wildcats may potentially face the defending champions UConn, a team with eleven returning players and one of the greatest coaches in college basketball in Jim Calhoun, in the second round. Although, the rest of UK’s half of the South region is very weak since Indiana is not the same team away from Assembly Hall and they are without senior guard Verdell Jones III, which means that the Hoosiers will consider themselves lucky if they even make it to the Sweet Sixteen. Wichita State would not give Kentucky any trouble if they were to matchup in the fourth round and the Wildcats will have to beat another elite team such as Baylor or Duke if they want to make it to New Orleans for the Final Four.  

 Was Murray State Given the Proper Seed as a #6 and How Dangerous are They?

The Murray State Racers had the best record this season in all of Division I basketball by posting an impressive 30-1 record and winning the Ohio Valley Conference. While they have little competition within conference play, the Racers beat #20 Memphis and #16 Saint Mary’s  as well as another tournament qualifying team in Southern Mississippi. If a team from the Power 6 were to fall only once all season as Murray State did, the team would be a lock for a number one seed. However, mid-majors provide a challenge for the selection committee and the Racers were no exception. They do not have a an impressive strength of schedule (158) or a lengthy list of wins against the RPI Top 50 deserving of a two, three, or four seed, yet their regular season accomplishments would make giving them an NCAA berth as an eight seed would be an injustice. Being a #6 is perfectly fine given the resumé of Murray State and it does not put too much pressure on them in March. They are favored in their first matchup against Colorado State and then will be tested by facing #3 Marquette, the runner-up in the Big East behind Syracuse. Led by junior guard Isaiah Canaan, who averages nearly twenty points per game, the Racers should watched closely as they have a legitimate chance to upset the Marquette Golden Eagles and advance to the Sweet Sixteen.

 Upset Alert

In a year with extreme parody in college basketball and very small margins between the different tiers of teams, there are surprisingly few potential upsets that jump off the page at me when I look at the bracket. In the second round, I can find seven potential upsets and even if the underdogs do win, I cannot imagine them advancing to the Sweet Sixteen. Even though VCU has an entirely cast of players this year after shocking the sports world by making it to the Final Four last season, the Rams could challenge Wichita State. If they manage to win their first game, they could sneak by into the Sweet Sixteen against a vulnerable Indiana team. The 5/12 matchups are always a great place to look for upsets and I found a second upset brewing in the West region with Long Beach State and New Mexico. Long Beach State had a very good record, but similarly to Murray State, they find themselves with a higher seed because they play in a weak conference. In the Midwest region, Robby Hummel is taking on St. Mary’s in his final NCAA Tournament appearance and I cannot see the Boilermakers going home after their first game. In the same region, #11 North Carolina State plays #6 San Diego State. The Wolfpack have played Duke and North Carolina tough this season and these experiences of playing elite teams in their own conference gives them the edge over the Aztecs. South Florida had a remarkable season and finished in the top half of the Big East for the first time in recent memory. They pride themselves on slowing the game down and being tough down low. If the Bulls can beat California in the play in game, I like their chances to play #5 Temple very tough in the second round. Even though West Virginia is a ten seed, they are an incredibly tough out. The Mountaineers had only two quality wins in conference against Cincinnati and Georgetown but played all of the teams ahead of them very close. West Virginia lost to Baylor by two in overtime, UConn by seven, Syracuse by two, Notre Dame by four…I think you get the picture. Kevin Jones is a going to be a first-round draft pick in the NBA and averages a double-double with twenty points and eleven rebounds per game. The final potential upset is #5 Vanderbilt against #12 Harvard. This is probably the least likely out of all of them because of Vandy’s championship run in the SEC tournament, but Harvard was ranked for a good portion of the season and has only lost twice in the past two months. Plus, aren’t the biggest upsets the ones that no one sees coming. The majority of knowledgeable fans that filled out brackets probably put the Commodores in the Sweet Sixteen and completely overlooked Vandy’s first round matchup. It is definitely a stretch but I think Harvard has the potential to be a sleeper team and pull off an upset later this week.

 The Sleepers

While I do not see any team above a seven seed making the Sweet Sixteen, there are some second-tier teams who have the potential to be bracket killers later in March. Every bracket that I have seen thus far on ESPN or at school has Michigan State or Missouri representing the West region in the Final Four. I don’t deny that they are the clear favorites but Louisville is capable of knocking off Michigan State and even making it to the Final Four. Peyton Siva is an electric point guard with a constant motor and it is close to impossible to slow him down. Gorgui Dieng is a major presence down low in terms of both rebounds and altering his opponents’ shots. The best part for the Cardinals is that they have six players who average at least nine points per game. Even though no one on the team averages more than thirteen per game, Louisville has a well-balanced offense and can still win if one of its key players has an off night shooting.

The East region is probably the second most difficult to predict who will make it past the second round. Even though Syracuse has lost only twice this season, they are not as much of a favorite as I expected them to be. Vanderbilt has momentum on their side, Cincinnati has shown great potential coming out of the Big East, and Florida State might be the hottest team in college basketball after beating Duke and North Carolina twice this season, including victories over both in the ACC Tournament. Vanderbilt has played all of their opponents tough this season and excluding two out of conference losses early in the season, the Commodores have generally only lost to top 15 teams by small margins. They showed their ability to upset top teams by defeating Kentucky in the SEC Championship and if they catch Syracuse on an off day, Vandy could find its way in the Elite Eight. The Cincinnati Bearcats are a very intriguing team. They are just as likely to lose in the first round to Texas as they are to advance to the Final Four. When Yancy Gates plays well down low and Cashmere Wright, Sean Kilpatrick, and Dion Dixon shoot well from the outside, UC is very tough to beat. My only concern is how much Cincy has in the tank to be able to play at a high level in both the frontcourt and backcourt in multiple postseason games. That being said, I expect Florida State to beat Cincinnati in the third round and go on to defeat Ohio State. Then the Seminoles would go on to likely face Syracuse or Vandy. Florida State has a few good three point shooters, including the team’s leading scorer Michael Snaer who shoots over 42% from behind the arc, which is critical to beating the Orange’s 2-3 zone defense. Florida State has only one bad loss all season, which is overshadowed by four victories over Duke and North Carolina combined. The Seminoles know how to be a giant killer and I think Florida State has a very good shot at representing the East region in New Orleans.

 Bracket Predictions

First off, I realize that I did not follow all of the potential upsets that I pointed out. Some of them, such as VCU beating Wichita State and Cincinnati beating Florida State, I would place in the “not likely but don’t be surprised if it happens” category.

 In the South, I like Kentucky beating UConn in a close game in the third round as well as Wichita State upsetting a fading Indiana team. Baylor will beat UNLV easily and go on to beat Duke in a competitive game. Baylor can match up well with the Blue Devils’ talented young guards with Pierre Jackson and the Bears have the advantage down low with Perry Jones III and Quincy Acy. Kentucky will advance to the Final Four over Baylor.

 
The East was very difficult to determine who would make it past the second round. Vandy’s momentum heading into the tournament will carry them over Wisconsin but Syracuse will beat the Commodores in the Sweet Sixteen. I favor Florida State over Cincinnati because there is no guarantee that the Bearcats will shoot well and Yancy Gates will show up on the same night. Ohio State has been inconsistent this season and Florida State will be riding its win streak into the Final Four.

Only two teams have a legitimate shot to make it out of the Midwest—North Carolina and Kansas. I think Temple will upset Michigan, proving that they are worthy of admittance to the Big East, and Georgetown will fall to Kansas. Henry Sims is easily the Hoyas’ best player but Kansas can match Sims with Thomas Robinson, who averages seventeen points per game, hauls in eleven boards per game, and shoots over 46% from downtown. The Kansas vs. North Carolina matchup is a toss-up but I give UNC a slight advantage because of how long their frontcourt is and Kendall Marshall’s ability to distribute the ball.

The West is a very competitive region and at least four teams have legitimate chances to advance to the Final Four. I like Louisville beating Long Beach State follower by Michigan State. In the bottom half, I think Missouri will defeat three tough teams in a row in Florida, Marquette, and Louisville to play Kentucky in the Final Four.

In the Final Four, I think Kentucky has too much talent for Missouri to try to compete with and the Wildcats advance to the National Championship to play the North Carolina Tar Heels. UK wins in a pretty close game to give John Calipari his first title at Kentucky. 

Courtesy of http://games.espn.go.com/tournament-challenge-bracket/en/frontpage

Cincinnati Bearcats Stun Georgetown in Double Overtime

       The Cincinnati Bearcats were down 49-38 with just under eight and a half minutes left in the game. Goergetown, the number fourteen team in the country, had been leading for the majority of the game, led by senior center Henry Sims. Sims scored twenty-two points and grabbed a career-high fifteen rebounds, along with assisting Otto Porter for the game-tying basket at the end of regulation and scoring a game-tying layup at the end of the first overtime. However, UC finished the game with a miraculous 16-5 run that sent the game into overtime. Yancy Gates, Cincinnati's center who is infamously known for throwing a punch in the Crosstown Shootout Brawl, scored 10 of his 23 points during this stretch. He even had a fadeaway three-pointer at the end of regulation which looked destined for the basket but went a foot past the rim. In a game where Henry Sims' draft prospects increased exponentially, the Bearcats needed Gates' 23 and 8 to match the Hoyas' big man step for step.

Courtesy of http://slapthesign.com/2012/03/08/cincinnati-72-georgetown-70-in-double-overtime/

       In the first overtime, with the score tied 54 to 54, four different Cincinnati players scored while it was Sims and Porter who led Georgetown. Both teams exchanged baskets and it was Sims who made a layup with one second remaining to send the game to a second overtime. In the second OT, there were five lead changes and it was Cashmere Wright's jumper with nine seconds left that gave 72-70 lead. In Georgetown's final possession, the Hoyas showed no urgency getting down the court and Henry Sims ended up with the ball at the top of the key. He had a good look, but a 6'10" center with no three point attempts in the past two years is not the player to take the final shot from that distance. His shot clanked against the back of the rim and UC had clinched the victory.
       While Cincinnati had the lower seed in terms of the Big East Tournament, Georgetown has been ranked in the top fifteen for most of the season and UC was not ranked entering the matchup. The Bearcats move on to play Syracuse tonight and look to get revenge for their seven-point home loss to the Orange in January. If the Bearcats beat Syracuse or manage to win the Big East Tourney, they may end up being selected as high as a five seed in the NCAA Tournament. If Cincinnati loses to the #2 team in the country, they will likely be a seven, eight, or nine seed for the tournament. Georgetown is almost guaranteed to be a three or four seed.

First Tickets Punched for March

       The goal of every Division I college basketball team is to be selected to compete in the 68-team playoff in March. Larger enrollment, well-respected coaches, better facilities, die-hard fan bases, and historic programs benefit many of the premier college basketball programs and conferences. You can count on Kentcuky, Duke, and North Carolina to participate in March Madness on an annual basis, and usually as some of the top seeds. The Big East typically sends seven, eight, or nine teams to the Big Dance every spring. These are luxuries that smaller basketball programs can only dream of and have two ways to qualify for the NCAA Tournament. The first possibility is to play a near-perfect season, meaning fewer than eight losses, and then hope for an at-large bid or secondly, to win a conference tournament at the end of the season. Conferences such as the Summit League or the Northeast are not considered elite by any means, in fact, most basketball fans probably cannot name a single team from either of these conferences. Schools that have "good seasons" for their standards can go unnoticed and the only guaranteed way to have their ticket punched is by winning three or four games in their conferences tournaments. For the most part, these automatic-bid qualifiers from smaller, weaker conferences fill up the thirteen through sixteen seeds, which is historically a recipe for a first round blowout loss.
       Over the weekend, three teams won their conference tournaments, which guarantees them an opportunity to play for the national title later this month. Belmont overcame a thirteen-point deficit to beat Florida Gulf Coast Saturday night 83-69 to secure the Atlantic Sun automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament. The Bruins were 27-7 during the regular season and lead the conference with a 16-2 record. They are currently projected to be a fourteen seed and face the struggling Baylor Bears. With the momentum in Belmont's favor, Baylor may be on upset alert as a three seed.

Courtesy of http://www.belmontbruins.com/landing/index

       The second team to win its conference tourney was the Murray State Racers, who finished off an impressive 30-1 season by besting the Tennessee State Tigers 54-52 on a game-winning layup with only a few seconds remaining in the game. The Racers were down for most of the second half but rallied in the end to finish with best record in all of Division I college basketball for the time being. Murray State won its second straight game against Tennessee State, who gave the Racers their only loss this season with a 72-68 victory on February 9th. Murray State is projected to be a six seed and face Mississippi State in the first round, a matchup in which the Racers are favored. If they win their opening matchup, the Ohio Valley Conference champions will be tested in the second round against only of the best teams in the Big East, the Marquette Golden Eagles.

Courtesy of http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/gametracker/recap/NCAAB_20120303_TNST@MURYST/racers-rally-past-tenn-st-for-ovc-title

       UNC-Asheville claimed the Big South title over the weekend after an 80-64 victory over the Virginia Military Keydets. The Bulldogs led the conference with a 24-9 overall record and they were 16-2 in conference play. UNC-Asheville is scheduled to play in a play-in game against Savannah State to decide which team will play the number one overall team Kentucky. A number of sixteen seeds have been on the verge of upsetting their higher-ranked opponents but the higher seed has never prevailed. Murray State once took Michigan State into overtime but the Spartans won by four as well as Princeton had two shot attempts at the end of the game to upset Georgetown but both were blocked and the Tigers lost by two. Kentucky has been hot for the entire season, led by player of the year candidate Anthony Davis, and I see UNC-Asheville sharing the same fate as its sixteen seed predecessors.     

Courtesy of http://isportsweb.com/2012/02/27/unc-asheville-basketball-2-wins-over-weekend-set-up-tournament-run-dickey-named-big-south-poy/