After coming home last night from practice and looking at the bracket, I could not have been more pleased with the result. When the biggest complaint about a team being left out is Drexel, a team in the Colonial Athletic Association who did win nineteen of its final twenty games but did not have a single quality win out of conference, the committee did an excellent job. I was very excited about how well the local teams fared as Xavier’s run in the A-10 Tournament earned the team a 10 seed and Cincinnati claimed a six spot after giving #2 Syracuse only its second loss of the season. Here are my initial reactions from Selection Sunday:
One of the biggest complaints I have heard in the past
day is that Kentucky has a more difficult than usual for the number one overall
seed. The Wildcats may potentially face the defending champions UConn, a team with
eleven returning players and one of the greatest coaches in college basketball
in Jim Calhoun, in the second round. Although, the rest of UK’s half of the
South region is very weak since Indiana is not the same team away from Assembly
Hall and they are without senior guard Verdell Jones III, which means that the
Hoosiers will consider themselves lucky if they even make it to the Sweet
Sixteen. Wichita State would not give Kentucky any trouble if they were to
matchup in the fourth round and the Wildcats will have to beat another elite team
such as Baylor or Duke if they want to make it to New Orleans for the Final
Four.
The Murray State Racers had the best record this season
in all of Division I basketball by posting an impressive 30-1 record and
winning the Ohio Valley Conference. While they have little competition within
conference play, the Racers beat #20 Memphis and #16 Saint Mary’s as well as another tournament qualifying team
in Southern Mississippi. If a team from the Power 6 were to fall only once all
season as Murray State did, the team would be a lock for a number one seed. However,
mid-majors provide a challenge for the selection committee and the Racers were
no exception. They do not have a an impressive strength of schedule (158) or a
lengthy list of wins against the RPI Top 50 deserving of a two, three, or four
seed, yet their regular season accomplishments would make giving them an NCAA
berth as an eight seed would be an injustice. Being a #6 is perfectly fine given
the resumé of Murray State and it does not put too much pressure on them in
March. They are favored in their first matchup against Colorado State and then
will be tested by facing #3 Marquette, the runner-up in the Big East behind
Syracuse. Led by junior guard Isaiah Canaan, who averages nearly twenty points
per game, the Racers should watched closely as they have a legitimate chance to
upset the Marquette Golden Eagles and advance to the Sweet Sixteen.
In a year with extreme parody in college basketball and
very small margins between the different tiers of teams, there are surprisingly
few potential upsets that jump off the page at me when I look at the bracket. In
the second round, I can find seven potential upsets and even if the underdogs
do win, I cannot imagine them advancing to the Sweet Sixteen. Even though VCU
has an entirely cast of players this year after shocking the sports world by
making it to the Final Four last season, the Rams could challenge Wichita
State. If they manage to win their first game, they could sneak by into the
Sweet Sixteen against a vulnerable Indiana team. The 5/12 matchups are always a
great place to look for upsets and I found a second upset brewing in the West
region with Long Beach State and New Mexico. Long Beach State had a very good
record, but similarly to Murray State, they find themselves with a higher seed
because they play in a weak conference. In the Midwest region, Robby Hummel is
taking on St. Mary’s in his final NCAA Tournament appearance and I cannot see
the Boilermakers going home after their first game. In the same region, #11 North
Carolina State plays #6 San Diego State. The Wolfpack have played Duke and
North Carolina tough this season and these experiences of playing elite teams
in their own conference gives them the edge over the Aztecs. South Florida had
a remarkable season and finished in the top half of the Big East for the first
time in recent memory. They pride themselves on slowing the game down and being
tough down low. If the Bulls can beat California in the play in game, I like
their chances to play #5 Temple very tough in the second round. Even though
West Virginia is a ten seed, they are an incredibly tough out. The Mountaineers
had only two quality wins in conference against Cincinnati and Georgetown but
played all of the teams ahead of them very close. West Virginia lost to Baylor
by two in overtime, UConn by seven, Syracuse by two, Notre Dame by four…I think
you get the picture. Kevin Jones is a going to be a first-round draft pick in
the NBA and averages a double-double with twenty points and eleven rebounds per
game. The final potential upset is #5 Vanderbilt against #12 Harvard. This is
probably the least likely out of all of them because of Vandy’s championship
run in the SEC tournament, but Harvard was ranked for a good portion of the
season and has only lost twice in the past two months. Plus, aren’t the biggest
upsets the ones that no one sees coming. The majority of knowledgeable fans
that filled out brackets probably put the Commodores in the Sweet Sixteen and
completely overlooked Vandy’s first round matchup. It is definitely a stretch
but I think Harvard has the potential to be a sleeper team and pull off an
upset later this week.
While I do not see any team above a seven seed making the
Sweet Sixteen, there are some second-tier teams who have the potential to be
bracket killers later in March. Every bracket that I have seen thus far on ESPN
or at school has Michigan State or Missouri representing the West region in the
Final Four. I don’t deny that they are the clear favorites but Louisville is
capable of knocking off Michigan State and even making it to the Final Four.
Peyton Siva is an electric point guard with a constant motor and it is close to
impossible to slow him down. Gorgui Dieng is a major presence down low in terms
of both rebounds and altering his opponents’ shots. The best part for the
Cardinals is that they have six players who average at least nine points per
game. Even though no one on the team averages more than thirteen per game,
Louisville has a well-balanced offense and can still win if one of its key
players has an off night shooting.
The East region is probably the second most difficult to
predict who will make it past the second round. Even though Syracuse has lost
only twice this season, they are not as much of a favorite as I expected them
to be. Vanderbilt has momentum on their side, Cincinnati has shown great
potential coming out of the Big East, and Florida State might be the hottest
team in college basketball after beating Duke and North Carolina twice this
season, including victories over both in the ACC Tournament. Vanderbilt has
played all of their opponents tough this season and excluding two out of
conference losses early in the season, the Commodores have generally only lost
to top 15 teams by small margins. They showed their ability to upset top teams
by defeating Kentucky in the SEC Championship and if they catch Syracuse on an
off day, Vandy could find its way in the Elite Eight. The Cincinnati Bearcats
are a very intriguing team. They are just as likely to lose in the first round
to Texas as they are to advance to the Final Four. When Yancy Gates plays well
down low and Cashmere Wright, Sean Kilpatrick, and Dion Dixon shoot well from
the outside, UC is very tough to beat. My only concern is how much Cincy has in
the tank to be able to play at a high level in both the frontcourt and
backcourt in multiple postseason games. That being said, I expect Florida State
to beat Cincinnati in the third round and go on to defeat Ohio State. Then the
Seminoles would go on to likely face Syracuse or Vandy. Florida State has a few
good three point shooters, including the team’s leading scorer Michael Snaer who
shoots over 42% from behind the arc, which is critical to beating the Orange’s
2-3 zone defense. Florida State has only one bad loss all season, which is
overshadowed by four victories over Duke and North Carolina combined. The
Seminoles know how to be a giant killer and I think Florida State has a very
good shot at representing the East region in New Orleans.
First off, I realize that I did not follow all of the
potential upsets that I pointed out. Some of them, such as VCU beating Wichita
State and Cincinnati beating Florida State, I would place in the “not likely
but don’t be surprised if it happens” category.
The East was very difficult to determine who would make it past the second round. Vandy’s momentum heading into the tournament will carry them over Wisconsin but Syracuse will beat the Commodores in the Sweet Sixteen. I favor Florida State over Cincinnati because there is no guarantee that the Bearcats will shoot well and Yancy Gates will show up on the same night. Ohio State has been inconsistent this season and Florida State will be riding its win streak into the Final Four.
Only two teams have a legitimate shot to make it out of the
Midwest—North Carolina and Kansas. I think Temple will upset Michigan, proving
that they are worthy of admittance to the Big East, and Georgetown will fall to
Kansas. Henry Sims is easily the Hoyas’ best player but Kansas can match Sims
with Thomas Robinson, who averages seventeen points per game, hauls in eleven
boards per game, and shoots over 46% from downtown. The Kansas vs. North Carolina
matchup is a toss-up but I give UNC a slight advantage because of how long
their frontcourt is and Kendall Marshall’s ability to distribute the ball.
The West is a very competitive region and at least four
teams have legitimate chances to advance to the Final Four. I like Louisville
beating Long Beach State follower by Michigan State. In the bottom half, I
think Missouri will defeat three tough teams in a row in Florida, Marquette,
and Louisville to play Kentucky in the Final Four.
In the Final Four, I think Kentucky has too much talent
for Missouri to try to compete with and the Wildcats advance to the National
Championship to play the North Carolina Tar Heels. UK wins in a pretty close
game to give John Calipari his first title at Kentucky.
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