From the Press Box 1.16.12

5 Takeaways from the Weekend

1. The Packers affirmed what we learned from the '07 Patriots. It's not about being the best team during the regular season in the NFL, it's about being the best team at the end of the season. I would go so far as to say that the Giants are the best team in the league right now. They're playing and winning very similarly to when they won the Super Bowl, so I wouldn't be surprised if they make it back there again.

2.  There's this really good quarterback named Tom Brady. I don't know if many of you have heard about him because of the never-ending Tebow hype, but Brady was the real quarterback in Foxboro. I'm not anti-Tim Tebow. I admire his leadership as a young player, his religious faith, and ability to respond to adversity, but I think he has a limited future in the NFL. In case anyone forgot, this was his first full season in the league, which means that opposing teams had extremely little film to study and absolutely no experience with his play style. This game was over within the first ten minutes, 14-0. Brady tied the playoff record for most passing touchdowns in a game by halftime. If Bill Belichick had Brady go 100% in the second half, he could have doubled the record! Tebow got his playoff win over the Steelers at home, but that was against a banged up Ben Roethlisberger and a Pittsburgh defensive coaching staff that decided they wouldn't change their approach despite Tim Tebow's long pass completions.

The New England Patriots were in the bottom two defenses in the league during the regular season, so one would think that Tebow would have increased chances of putting up big numbers on Saturday. Well that was a whiff of a prediciton if there ever was one. 9-26, 136 yards with no touchdowns passing and five rushes for thirteen yards with his longest run being for fourteen yards.

3. The last four minutes of the 49'ers vs. Saints game may have been the most exciting four minutes ever of a football game. Luckily for me, I was only able to watch the last ten minutes of the game. I turned on the TV to San Francisco leading 20-17. It blows my mind how the teams were able to be sound defensively for most of the game and practically double the score in the final four possessions. Alex Smith matched Drew Brees throw for throw in the fourth quarter.

Guess what? Alex Smith is not a bust.

I know no one ever dreamt of speaking those words but stranger things have happened. Give the guy some credit. Seven offensive coordinators in the same number of years. All he needed was a good coach like Jim Harbaugh to put all of his eggs in the Alex Smith basket and give him the support he needed. If the 49'ers win, Smith is playing in the Super Bowl. Mark Sanchez has never done that. Joe Flacco has never done that. Philip Rivers has done that. Even if San Fran loses its next game, he will still get a multi-year contract and try to repeat this season's success in the future.

It's pretty incredible that New Orleans was able to stay competitive against such a good defense like San Francisco when they turned the ball over five times. Brees was still on the doorstep of 500 passing yards in the game but it's next to impossible to win on the road when the home team gets that many gifts. If the Saints can improve on defense while Brees is still in his prime, they can make another run at the Super Bowl.

4. I wouldn't want to face the Ravens' D. Ed Reed. Ray Lewis. Terrell Suggs. I don't know about you but typing those names is making me curl up in a ball in the corner of my room and hide under a blanket. Baltimore's defense is filled with big-time playmakers and heavy hitters that would make me not want to face them in the playoffs. Two fourth quarter interceptions, plus two forced fumbles on special teams. New England better hold onto the ball next weekend or at least score enough that turnovers don't matter.

5. As much as I like Indiana's basketball team, they are not the same team on the road. First with their loss last month on the road in East Lansing against then #17 Michigan State and then on Sunday at Ohio State. A 74-70 win at home is lightyears different from an 80-63 loss on the road. At a neutral court I would take, Ohio State by about ten. IU should be a three of four seed in the tournament unless they win the majority of their ranked opponents, in which case, they'll be a two seed. The Hoosiers are definitely a threat and I would favor them in most matchups, but I think the nation has gotten ahead of itself slightly on the Hoosiers bandwagon. We'll find out in March how good Tom Crean's squad really is and if the Assembly Hall Hoosiers can play the same way outside of their own arena.

From the Press Box 1.14.12

NFL Divisional Round of the Playoffs

San Francisco 49'ers vs. New Orleans Saints

The age-old question of what happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object definitely applies to this matchup. A top five offense going on the road against a top five defense. Drew Brees takes his 5,000+ passing yards and dozen different receiving threats to San Fran against a Jim Harbaugh's physical defense. Good luck to whoever has to cover Jimmy Graham-the guy had more fouls than field goals while playing college basketball and Brees will surely target the tight end throughout the game assuming the Saints running game stalls.

Did I mention the 49'ers have only given up one rushing touchdown all season? My Calculus grade doesn't indicate that I'm a math expert, but that means that they played 15 games WITHOUT giving up a rushing TD. The Saints have a very underrated and unique three-pronged rushing attack but the 49'ers know how to stop opposing teams' ground games.
If you're similar to the middle school kids with ADD and short term memory loss, here are the two things to write down on your hand or forearm with your scented non-toxic purple marker (I'm personally a fan of writing on your forearm because it's less likely to get washed off and people in rough neighborhoods might mistake the writing as tattoos and be intimidated by you).

The Saints are not playing at the Superdome. It's as if the air is filled with krypton and Superman is at risk whenever he leaves his home. If the Saints played all of their game at home, they wouldn't lose more than one or two games each year. But considering the NFL is a fair league where the teams with the best records get home-field advantage in the playoffs, they have to leave the state of Louisiana after the first round. I can't explain but they're a different team when they leave the bayou.
The San Francisco 49'ers have much less playoff experience than the Saints. The 49'ers haven't played past Week 17 since 2002. That's before rookie coach Jim Harbaugh made a name for himself at Stanford. That's before Mike Singletary's fiery press conferences. That's before Alex Smith went #1 overall to the 49'ers. The Saints have had six playoff appearances in that time span, including a Super Bowl victory in the 2009-2010 season.

           San Francisco will have to keep the Saints under thirty points if they want to have any shot at winning and I can't see Alex Smith keeping up with Drew Brees offensively. Get your Mardi Gras beads, jazz music, and jumbalaya ready-Saints win 31-17.

New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos

                                                                                                                   

              Same song, just a different beat. The Broncos are a much better team a mile up in the air. Plus, playing at Foxborough is one of the worse locations because that means that they have to face the wrath of Tom "I wear Uggs but don't try making fun of me because I have a supermodel wife and three championship rings" Brady and Bill "My wardrobe consists of twelve different grey hoodies" Belichick.
Anyone who claims that Denver will win because of it's defense is either forgetting or blatantly ignoring who they're up against. The name's Brady, Tom Brady, Agent 0012. The Pats have exited the playoffs after their first game each of the past two seasons and they're definitely not going for the three-peat. Tim Tebow got his $250,000 from winning last game and the victory means that the county will get at least one more year of endless talk about him in in the media. However, he is without Eric Decker and will need more than a Hail Mary to win the game (pun intended).

The Fighting Tebow's lose 31-13.

 Jeff Fisher to the Rams

                   This is the kind of decision that makes fans question “experts” and analysts such as Adam Schefter. Now there’s no question that Schefter is good at what he does for ESPN and no bum off the street could just replace him and do the same quality of work. Miami seemed like the more favorable choice.

                   Why did the Big Three—I’m referring to the ones in Miami, not the ones in Boston, the Three Stooges, or the Three Musketeers—choose to land in Miami instead of Cleveland? 80˚ weather on a daily basis in the winter versus 20˚ weather, snow storms, and a terrible sports city.

                    Miami would have the upper hand in most comparisons between two cities. The Dolphins were 6-10 this year, which is by no means good but at least respectable compared to the St. Louis Rams’ record of 2-14. The Patriots’ days are numbered. Tom Brady has maybe four years of high-level performance but lacks excellent wide receivers, running backs, and defense. The New York Jets took a nose dive this season despite their claims to make it to the Super Bowl and whatever other ridiculous claims Rex Ryan made. The Bills started surprisingly well but in the end turned out to be the team everyone expected them to be. Miami could contend for the AFC East title by finding a quarterback to go along with Reggie Bush and Brandon Marshall, who both had 1,000 yard seasons, and improving their pass defense through the draft or free agency.

                  I understand Fisher, but I don’t necessarily agree with him. The Rams at least have a quarterback, Sam Bradford, to build around for the future, but it’s a quarterback who has faced lots of issues with injuries in the past few seasons. St. Louis also has the second overall pick, which they can use on essentially any position other than quarterback or running back and their team would benefit greatly. Or, they could always go the route of trading the pick for a combination of player(s) and picks to fill more of their holes. Although, in case he has lived under the rock for the past five months, I have a wake-up call for Jeff Fisher--the San Francisco 49’ers are really good. Alex Smith is still a relatively young player, Frank Gore is a monster out of the backfield, and don’t even bother trying to run against SF because you won’t get anywhere. The ‘Niners are going to dominate this division for the next five years at least and it will be difficult to build a team quickly that can dethrone them.

                    We’ll see how Fisher feels about the decision next year around Week 8 when the Rams are 2-6 or 3-5 and the temperature in St. Louis drops to half of that in Miami.

UNC Blown Out by FSU

                    North Carolina basketball coach Roy Williams has never been embarrassed this badly before in his time at Chapel Hill.

                    90-57.

                    That’s more than just a bad shooting night. Florida State almost scored as many second half points as that Tar Heels did in the game.  Two Seminoles, Deividas Dulkys and Michael Snaer, dropped nearly as many as the #3 team in the country. Florida State shot well, nothing jaw-dropping at 48.4%. The biggest differences were free throws and three-pointers.

                      UNC: 9-20 and 4-21.

                     FSU: 18-24 and 12-27.

                   Good teams make free throws, it’s as simple as that. North Carolina was caught on a bad day on the road against Florida State, who played out of their minds. Most top ranked teams slip up at some point during the season and today just happened to be that day. Had the game been played at Chapel Hill, I don’t think the result would have been worthy of the #1 story on SportsCenter as it is now.

Miami Heat Three-Game Losing Streak

                   After starting 8-1 and managing to win a game in overtime without LeBron or D-Wade playing at all, the Miami Heat have dropped three straight games, two of which were in OT. However, the worst news of last night for Miami was Wade’s ankle injury that leaves him questionable for the upcoming games. With a shortened season, the Heat are 1/5 of the way done before the start of the playoffs. They are still second in the Southeast Conference and have one of the best records in the NBA so they have nothing to worry about. For now. As long as they can pull themselves together and turn things around they are still in great position to make a deep run in the playoffs. LeBron has been scoring like crazy this season and a likely frontrunner for MVP

 Fantasy Basketball

                 I’m in my first legitimate fantasy basketball league (the one for computer lab in junior high where you “reported” your own score and the girls drafted the players with funny foreign names doesn’t county) and the draft was last night. I wasn’t able to draft my team live and I was given the last pick of the first round sadly, but here’s my team:

Rajan Rondo
Pau Gasol
DJ Augustin
Al Horford
Marcus Thornton
Wesley Matthews
Landry Fields
Boris Diaw
Nick Young
Mario Chalmers
OJ Mayo
DeAndre Jordan

NFL Power Rankings Entering Week 16

            There are only two weeks left in the regular season of the NFL and it's crunch time for teams trying to make the playoffs. Here are my power rankings going into Week 16:

1. Green Bay Packers--Their loss to the Kansas City Chiefs will only make them better. Aaron Rodgers is the best player in the league and will lead the Packers to the Super Bowl for the second year in a row.
2. New England Patriots--The Pats have won six straight and ended Tim Tebow's stretch of miracle fourth quarter comebacks by an impressive margin. Bill Belichick is one of the smartest head coaches in the NFL and Tom Brady is a natural winner.
3. New Orleans Saints--Drew Brees is on pace to break the single-season passing record and the Saints are an offensive juggernaut. They have the ability to outscore their opponents to make it to the NFC Championship.
4. San Francisco 49'ers--Jim Harbaugh has completely transformed the 49'ers into one of the elite teams in the NFL and is deserving of Coach of the Year. The 49'ers made their case for a top spot in the power rankings by dominating the Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday Night Football.
5. Baltimore Ravens--The Ravens have two favorable match-ups to close out the regular season against the Cleveland Browns and Cincinnati Bengals and will finish the season at 12-4 at the top of the AFC North.
6. Atlanta Falcons--Atlanta has a powerful offense with Matt Ryan and Michael Turner as well as an above-average defense. They are a close second in the NFC South behind the Saints.
7. Dallas Cowboys--Tony Romo has gone under the radar for most of the season and he has lots of offensive weapons around him between DeMarco Murray, Jason Witten, and Dez Bryant. 
8. Detroit Lions--The Lions were the hottest team at the start of the season, cooled down, and are starting to pick it back up again. Calvin Johnson is by far the best wide receiver in the league and is a favorite target for Matthew Stafford.
9. Pittsburgh Steelers--If it weren't for Ben Roethlisberger's injured ankle, they would be ranked higher, but their performance against the 49'ers was embarrassing and they are not the same team they were earlier in the season.
10. Houston Texans--The Texans have arguably the best defense in the NFL, but losing Matt Schaub for the season has hurt their playoff hopes. Between Arian Foster and Ben Tate, Houston has one of the best rushing attacks in the league.
11. Denver Broncos--The Tim Tebow experiment is working well so far, despite a bad loss to the Patriots last week, and the Broncos are in position for Tebow to work his magic in the playoffs.
12. New York Jets--Rex Ryan has been quieter than in years past and the Jets are down from previous years, but the have a chance to be a wild card team in the playoffs and Mark Sanchez is very good in the playoffs for a young QB. 
13. New York Giants--Eli Manning is making up for the Peyton Manning-less NFL by stepping up his game this season. The Ahmad Bradshaw-Brandon Jacobs split backfield seems to be working on offense.
14. Cincinnati Bengals--Andy Dalton is a front-runner for Offensive Rookie of the Year and A.J. Green has made a name for himself as well. If the Bengals win out, they could be the second wild card team in the AFC, and the AFC North would be sending three teams to the playoffs.
15. Seattle Seahawks--Tavaris Jackson has done surprisingly well with his new team and Marshawn Lynch is a potential Pro Bowler.
16. Arizona Cardinals--Also in the NFC West, the Cardinals are fighting for a playoff berth. Their second half of the season has helped their case.
17. Philadelphia Eagles--Getting Michael Vick back on the field will help Philly try to salvage their season, but it is too late for the "Dream Team."
18. Tennessee Titans--Injuries to Matt Hasselbeck and Chris Johnson have hurt Tennessee this season. They have played poorly despite their weak division.
19. San Diego Chargers--It is finally December and the Chargers are still in the close race commonly known as the AFC West. Philip Rivers and Ryan Matthews can still lead their team to the playoffs if they win out and Denver loses at least one game.  
20. Chicago Bears--The Bears would be a dangerous team in the playoffs if Jay Cutler and Matt Forte were healthy, but Caleb Hanie and Josh McCown will not get it done for Chicago. Their defense and special teams are their only hope left this season.
21. Oakland Raiders--The Raiders have choked down the stretch but their offense has improved with the addition of Carson Palmer and the dual-running back system is working in Oakland.
22. Carolina Panthers--Cam Newton has put up impressive numbers as a rookie and is one of the few encouraging parts of the Panthers organization.
23. Washington Redskins--The Redskins have beaten up on the Giants twice this season and have played good teams, such as the Patriots and Cowboys, very close.
24. Miami Dolphins--Miami has turned its season around after starting 0-6.
25. Buffalo Bills--Despite starting the season 4-1, the Bills have played like the team everyone expected and are at the bottom of the AFC East.
26. Kansas City Chiefs--Their biggest wins came against San Diego, Chicago, and most importantly, Green Bay.
27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers--They started the season strong with wins against Atlanta and New Orleans, but have fallen off with eight straight losses. 
28. Cleveland Browns--It is hard to do well with potentially three divisional opponents who will make the playoffs.
29. Jacksonville Jaguars--The Jaguars are showing why they deserve to re-locate to Los Angeles after having a miserable season. Blaine Gabbert has struggled in his rookie year.
30. St. Louis Rams--The Rams knocked off the Saints earlier in the season, but losing Sam Bradford has hurt them.
31. Minnesota Vikings--Even though Donovan McNabb retired early in the season, the Vikings were able to give rookie Christian Ponder lots of game experience. Similarly to the Browns, Minnesota's division was very good this year between Green Bay, Chicago, and Detroit.
32. Indianapolis Colts--There is not much to say other than that they don't have Peyton Manning and they almost went 0-16.

New Orleans Saints vs. Detroit Lions Preview

            The New Orleans Saints are undefeated at the Superdome this season and I don't see that changing after tonight's game against the Detroit Lions. The Saints have won three straight games and are in great shape to make a run at the Super Bowl. Drew Brees has averaged over three hundred yards and three touchdowns over the past five games and there is no reason why he won't continue to put up big numbers. The Lions defense will be missing Ndamukong Suh because of his two game suspension for stomping on the arm of Green Bay Packers lineman Evan Dietrich-Smith. They will also be without key members of their seconday including Chris Houston, Louis Delmas, and Brandon McDonald. On the offensive side of the ball, the Lions will be without running back Jahvid Best and Kevin Smith will most likely see limited snaps due to an ankle injury. Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson will have to step up their performance if Detroit wants to have any hope at winning in New Orleans. With the three-headed rushing attack of Mark Ingram, Pierre Thomas, and Darren Sproles the Saints have too many weapons for a lacking Detroit Lions defense to match up against. Also on offense, tight end Jimmy Graham is having a remarkable season and is the Saints leading receiver. Graham can create a lot of mismatches with his size in a Lions secondary filled with backup players.

Courtesy of http://sportsrantz.com/achievements/drew-brees/

Prediction: The New Orleans Saints win 42-24 over the Detroit Lions.
Drew Brees will throw for 350 yards and four touchdowns. Jimmy Graham will have five receptions for eighty yards and one touchdown. The Saints rushing trio combined will have 130 yards and two touchdowns. Matthew Stafford will throw for 250 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions. Calvin Johnson will have 100 yards receiving and one touchdown.