Conference: A-10 (3rd)
Record: 17-9 (8-4)
RPI: 52
Strength of Schedule: 52
Quality Wins:
- @ #19 Vanderbilt 82-70
- vs Purdue 66-63
Bad Losses:
- vs. Oral Roberts 64-42
- vs. Long Beach State 68-58
- @ Hawaii 84-82
At their peak, the Xavier Musketeers were #7 in the nation, riding an 8-0 start and senior point guard Tu Holloway was on pace to be a potential All-American. However, all of that changed after Xavier's 76-53 victory over the Cincinnati Bearcats in the annual Crosstown Shootout. While a lot of credit goes to Holloway for their hot start, he is part of the blame for their sudden downfall. Both teams were at fault for the brawl that occurred with less than ten seconds remaining in the game, but Tu Holloway rekindled the enmity between the two teams when he started jawing at UC players when Xavier had clearly secured the win. Punches were thrown, suspensions were given, and in the immediate aftermath, the Musketeers' legs were taken out from under them. It was apparent that XU would lose to Oral Roberts, when Holloway, Mark Lyons, and Dez Wells were serving their suspensions. The trio of guards average nearly fourty-five points per game combined and it was unlikely that Xavier's young bench players would be able to step up enough to win the game that early in the season. Luckily for the Muskies, the NCAA Tournament Committee will most likely take the suspensions into consideration when examining some of Xavier's losses early in the season. Xavier went on to lose three straight after falling to Long Beach State and Hawaii. However, once again, suspensions played a role in the losses. Lyons did not play against Long Beach State and Wells was absent for both matchups. With a full roster, Xavier would not have lost those games and would be sitting at 20-6 with only a few weeks remaining until March Madness. Even after all of their players returned from suspension, Xavier showed signs of deeper issues. Maybe it was the media's criticism of the responses Xavier players gave in the post-game press conference. Maybe the team's morale was crushed after dropping three straight in a regular season in which they could have realistically survived the entire season with only three losses. No one can point to one specific reason why the Musketeers were in a funk, but they have not been able to turn the corner. The loss to Gonzaga by seven points was respectable. Ideally, Xavier would have won that game at home, but Gonzaga was a ranked opponent who brought its A-game into the Cintas Center. The two conference losses XU would like to have back are the ones to La Salle and Dayton. Both opponents are middle-of-the-pack A-10 teams and would be bottom feeders in better conferences. When schedules are released each year and teams analyze their matchups, these two games are ones that are "gimmes," or winnable games that you can't let slip out of your grasp. No matter who wins the A-10 tournament, Temple and St. Louis are both likely going to the tournament. They are the two teams standing in Xavier's way of first place in the Atlantic 10 Conference and prove to be tough competition for Xavier on a yearly basis. The loss to Memphis was another missed opportunity but not a make-or-break game for Xavier's tournament chances. Memphis was a highly ranked team earlier in the season and boost Xavier's strength of schedule.
The key for Xavier to solidify itself as a tournament worthy team is to win out in the rest of the regular season. Two of the remaining games are against bad opponents in Charlotte and Richmond. Along with the matchup against Massachusetts, these games are opportunities to boost Xavier's confidence and record. The biggest game left on the Musketeers' schedule is against SLU, who is in second place in the A-10 by half a game. XU can get a payback victory over the Billikens and even make their way into one of the top two positions in the conference. If Xavier were to enter the A-10 Tournament on a five games win streak, the Muskies would hopefully be able to ride that momentum to an A-10 Championship and a NCAA Tournament berth as a result.
The Verdict:
I think it is safe to say that winning the A-10 Tournament is the only way for Xavier to guarantee that it will be heading to the Big Dance in March. Other than their first eight games of the season, Xavier has not proven to be an excellent or consistent team. The Musketeers have a few nice wins, but their bad losses greatly outweigh any bright spots of this season. Four of their nine losses were by seven points or less, but Xavier cannot consistently come away with the W when it matters the most. Also, Xavier struggles greatly outside of Cincinnati. The Musketeers are 4-5 on the road and tournament-qualifying teams are able to win on the road. Xavier is on the outside looking in. It's a shame to see a team with such potential and promise let its season go down the drain.
- Best Case Scenario-Xavier wins its final four games of the regular season and wins the A-10 Tournament. The Musketeers would likely be between a ten and a twelve seed in the NCAA Tournament. Depending on which team they were to draw, they could upset a 5, 6, or 7 seed. Even if they do make the tournament, they will have an early exit. When at their best, XU's guards can play with any backcourt in the country, but the Muskies lack depth down low.
- Worst Case Scenario-Xavier struggles in the rest of the remaining conference games. The Musketeers go on to lose to La Salle, Dayton, Temple, or St. Louis, all teams that have given Xavier trouble this season and in recent memory.
The Xavier Musketeers could have been as high as a two or three seed if the Crosstown Shootout incident had been avoided or if they were able to rebound in better fashion. However, they may have played their way out of an at-large bid. Joe Lunardi, ESPN's bracketology expert, has recently added Xavier as an eleven seed from the first team out for this year's NCAA Tournament. Tu Holloway and Kenny Frease must rally the troops in their final games of their college careers and prove that Xavier can win enough games in a row to guarantee a tournament bid. I hope XU proves me wrong, but I do not see Xavier making the tournament and they will have to settle for a top seed in the N.I.T. The Musketeers will get the great seed they have had their eyes set on since getting eliminated last season by Marquette, but it will be in the wrong tournament.
