Conference: Big East (6th)
Record: 19-8 (9-5)
RPI: 84
Strength of Schedule: 51
Quality Wins:
- @ #22 Pittsburgh 66-63
- vs. Notre Dame 71-55
- @ #11 Georgetown 68-64
- @ #11 Connecticut 70-67
Bad Losses:
- vs. Presbyterian 56-54
- vs. Marshall 73-69 (OT)
- @ #8 Xavier 76-53
- @ Rutgers 61-54
- @ #19 Marquette 95-78
The Cincinnati Bearcats started this season as a top 25 team according to Sports Illustrated but failed to live up to its potential by starting 5-3 with three bad losses. The Cats fell to both Presbyterian and Marshall by two points before the start of Big East play. However, after getting blown out by the Xavier Musketeers in the Crosstown Shootout, Mick Cronin changed the team's direction and they went on a seven game win streak and won ten out of eleven, including victories on the road against the ranked opponents of Pittsburgh, Georgetown, and Connecticut. The Bearcats missed three opportunities in a row when they lost to West Virginia in OT by three points, followed by seven point losses to Syracuse and Rutgers. UC has fallen to a .500 team in its past eight games. Cronin needs to find a way to transform his team into their form from earlier in the season--a high-powered offense who played a fast-paced game. While it is not necessarily smart to rely on the three ball, UC was playing its best when Cashmere Wright, Dion Dixon, and Sean Kilpatrick were dominating the perimeter and Yancy Gates was cleaning up down low. Outside of Gates, Cincinnati does not have the depth or experiences in the post to pound the ball in the paint to its big men compared to a team such as Syracuse, but it has a handful of very talented guards. If the Bearcats can control the pace of the game and make their opponents run the floor, UC is much more likely to have success in its remaining games.
The 'Cats have four regular season games remaining and three of them are against teams that are ahead of them in the Big East standings--Marquette, Louisville, and South Florida. Cincinnati needs to win and should win the final game of the season at Villanova. The Bearcats need to prove themselves once again against ranked opponents in order to be selected for the Big Dance, so Mick Cronin's squad needs another signature win over Marquette or Louisville. Once the Big East Tournament rolls around, the Cincinnati Bearcats will have their chance to boost its tournament resumé since roughly half of the teams will qualify for March Madness. The rest is up to UC. The further they made it in the Big East Tournament, the more ranked teams they will have to beat to continue to the next round.
The Verdict:
The Cincinnati Bearcats have accumulated a number of great wins against ranked Big East opponents on the road. While their quality of play has gone down slightly of late, they are still competitive in almost every game they play. They have only been blown out twice all season, and both times were on the road to top twenty teams in Xavier and Marquette. The rest of their losses have been by seven points or fewer. UC has shown it can play with the big boys and still has a number of chances to beat some of the elite Big East teams.
- Best Case Scenario-UC beats Villanova and South Florida, as well as at least one of the two ranked opponents left on its schedule. The Bearcats make a deep run in the Big East Tourney and bring down another two or three teams ranked above them. The 'Cats are currently a twelve seed according to ESPN Bracketologist Joe Lunardi and could make their way to the seven/eight/nine range if they have an excellent showing in the Big East Tournament. Playing in the Big East would definitely help UC in the Big Dance. They would be an extremely tough out. In ESPN's projected bracket, UC is scheduled to play the 5 seed Wichita State and I think the Bearcats could roll over the Shockers. I think the Bearcats have Sweet Sixteen potential if they are placed in the right region.
- Worst Case Scenario-The Cincinnati Bearcats choke at the end of the season and lose three of their last four to Big East opponents ahead of them in the standings. They win their opening matchup in the Big East Tournament but have a second round exit to a better team. They go to the NCAA Tournament as an eleven or twelve seed, don't show up in the first round, and go home early.
The Cincinnati Bearcats have winnable games left on their schedule against elite Big East teams and I expect them to win at least one or two of them before Selection Sunday. UC will be in the neighborhood of a nine/ten/eleven seed and will advance past the first round in March Madness. I can't see them making it past the Sweet Sixteen, although, they are talented enough to win two games and make it to the round of 16.
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